18z Euro is showing moire development, and the ensembles have ticked up again, leaving the GFS the only major model not showing development right now.

The 18z GFS did not show development, and the 18z hurricane models are having a hard time with tt as well. As the seabreeze enhanced band dies down overnight it'll probably wane, with the center still not being well defined east of Florida, it could move (north or south) with the cold pool wake of the large band that went through. 40% is still a good estimate.

Google AI's take on it (12z)