Most of today's 18z mode runs initialize 93L quite a bit farther north, but possibly a touch too far north based on the most recent trends noted in the above post.

If 93L can continue to consolidate a little south of these 18z run initializations, it would likely fare better odds at becoming an officiated TC as there would be more time over water. However, even if it doesn't, there looks to be "just enough" water, swamp and brown ocean to allow for continued gradual organization.

The NHC 40% looks reasonable, given the known unknowns. Once 93L is west of the peninsula, and provided it is over enough Gulf water, recon missions will be invaluable in giving us a better forecast.