12z and 18z models are struggling with our Invest 93L. However, the 12z Euro ensemble-implied probabilities are still respectable. In fact, they are in the 90% range for TD formation by the time our disturbance reaches southern Louisiana. As 93L is now in the process of closing off again, doing so offshore and under deeper convection, this is not outlandish, albeit more bullish than suggested by many other models.

Considering recent trends, there is arguably a near 100% chance for at least TD-like conditions in Louisiana by midday Thursday the 17th, regardless of designation, thus residents and visitors may want to prep for very wet and flooding weather.