cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Jul 31 2025 12:31 PM
Re: General Long Range Lounge

IMHO, looking out past ten days or so is very challenging and almost unrealistic other than to gather a clue as to whether or not conditions may be trending more favorable for development. Considering the number of new models recently being utilized by folks, I found the plot below informative.

The AIFS single does very poorly when compared to the GFS Ensemble mean and ECMWF ensemble mean. However, the AIFS ensemble mean actually slightly outperforms.


Above: 30-90°N 500mb skill scores since December for ECMWF's new AI ensemble (AIFS-ENS) vs. GFS Ens, EURO Ens and AIFS single
h/t World Climate Service on X


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