cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 02 2025 03:05 AM
Re: General Long Range Lounge

Mid/late August is just about universally recognized as the "real" hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, climatologically. This time frame is when conditions come together to make TC genesis and development much more conducive, with systems anticipated to form way out in the basin and less forming close to home.

Checking in on some of the key the conditions for development in the Tropical Atlantic this year through August 1st shows that, for the most part, the Main Development Region remains fairly inhospitable compared to average, for now, almost entirely because of low vertical instability in the face of a great deal of Saharan Air (warm and dry air aloft)


Above: Vertical Instability in the Tropical Atlantic remains well below average (Bodes poorly for development)


Above: Mean Sea Level Pressure in the Tropical Atlantic remains much higher than average (Bodes poorly for development)


Above: 850hPa Horizontal Divergence may be turning more favorable and has been more favorable so far, overall.
Higher levels of divergence at this level in the atmosphere are often associated with rising air (Favorable for development)


Above: Sea Surface Temperatures in the Tropical Atlantic have been running higher than average (Favorable for development)


Above: General shear in the Tropical Atlantic has been running about average (Generally favorable for development)



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