Persistence is the key is something that drives this site's goal of no hype. Right now the models haven't been very persistent, consistent, or agreed on much, and that remains the case. It doesn't mean no activity, just means there's nothing concerning.

There is a signal that in or around the typicall "bell ring" point of the 20th, this year will wind up being average, and that also means we may have multiple systems going around then. Just nothing on the models calling out anything specific. Euro is showing systems very close to Bermuda and in the Caribbean and something else in between. The GFS isn't showing much. The euro AI model seems to be fixated on South Florida and the Gulf again, just with a different system than the weak wave currently NE of the Caribbean it was showing a week ago or so. Watching for persistence, and if any other models join (and persist) to take any of that seriously.

One wildcard is activity off the Carolinas. Ensembles like it a lot for something weak/short lived or stretched out. But nothing has persisted there, so if anything does form it'll likely be short lived there. Not enough persistence to call out anything significant.

I suspect the next week will be generally quiet, but the signals for the week beyond and more will get louder and louder. A bit concerning this year with the overall pattern more favorable for east coast landfalls than usual -- if anything forms that is. Doesn't mean they will, just that the odds are a bit higher than usual. Particularly the Carolinas a bit north to New England, However, again without any consistency timing and storm location will matter more than anything else there.