| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 07 2025 02:52 PM |
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Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Quote:
With the uptick in activity about to come in mid to late August there should be plenty to watch. The in Africa wave doesn't have a shot to become an invest area until Sunday or Monday though, so lots of time for things to change on it, even longer for anything to really develop, which is the next milestone.
The MDR is waking up. My gut feeling is that it will progressively kick out multiple disturbances through the heart of the season, but they will be slow to develop much until reaching 60 west where the sweet spot with abundant moisture, low shear and above normal SST's may persist.
While 2025 is a few weeks ahead of historical activity for named systems, and we will probably get the first hurricane of the season around the typical time in mid-August, I think we're on track for a near normal season for named storms and ACE, though we may fall short on the number of hurricanes and majors.
Guessing about the area that could be impacted by a significant Atlantic hurricane, I'd favor the southeast Florida peninsula (Miami/Dade) and Keys, followed by the far western Florida panhandle and/or Alabama. These parts of the coast are overdue given they escaped the brunt of the hyper-active last 5 seasons. A TC like Andrew', initially unimpressive until everything comes together, could be in store in late August or early September.