The 6z GFS curves the system out to sea just west of Bermuda, in the mid-range of the ensembles here. This is similar to yesterday's 18z run. (the 12z was all the way to Texas, so it's jumping around)

This system staying offshore remains the most likely outcome, but not by a comfortable margin. GEFS mean is west of the GFS operational run, and is pretty close to the northeast. The overall spread runs from roughly the TX/LA Border to Bermuda beyond 10 days.

6z GFS closest approach to Caribbean Islands

6z run staying east of the bahamas