A fortuitous ASCAT pass from just a few hours ago clearly shows that 97L has now developed a fairly well-defined surface circulation. Conventional satellite images since that time also show that convection persists, but is still only loosely organized. However, only a small increase in organization would likely make 97L our next TD or possibly named storm as soon as later today.

While earlier TCG would generally favor an earlier turn to the north (and ideally for those of us in North America, a recurve out to sea), steering currents this far out are not set in stone.