MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Aug 11 2025 06:47 AM
Re: East Atlantic Wave (30%)

Overnight models and ensembles have set up pretty well for a ridge to build and retrograde in with a trough in about 7-8 days, leading to a recurve of the system. Which is pretty healthy looking right now, but difficult to pinpoint location exactly so it's not being tracked as a depression or storm yet, it could later today though, but it's unlikely to develop much more for a few more days (maybe around 50 west), so development early on isn't really guaranteed, which is why I think the NHC is holding classification. It's not a bad call given the environment ahead of it.

Bermuda needs to watch, the rest of us just need to monitor for changes, but they are honestly pretty unlikely. The northeast would be the most likely impacted if things were delayed a bit.

Models overnight kept it offshore (Except for Newfoundland) and west of Bermuda, event the euro AI. It's going to be close to Bermuda though, so those there need to watch the most. With the Canadian Maritime provinces being second. Anything else would need a pretty drastic change to the general trends, something to monitor for, but if anything it would shift recurve slightly east or west of the current ensemble means. Changes to look out for are any southwest dips and ridging changes.



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