Given the lack of thunderstorms all day, I'm kinda surprised that NHC has not downgraded Erin to a TD. Even the ASCAT pass this morning showed a single barb of 36kt, mentioned in the 11am discussion yet they didn't change the intensity when the same pattern continued all day. We have seen several unnamed systems in the last year or so, including 2 off the Carolinas last summer that had better organization, banding and measured winds to get at least TD if not TS status. And there is a great swath of dry air directly in the path of Erin, and the 19kt forward speed is bringing it very close to her moisture envelope. If Erin survives until Friday, she may get a second shot at survival. Curious to watch the next few days....