Overnight models runs, particularly the GFS are highlighting Bermuda, or close, with the exception of the Icon which is much further left/southwest of the others. Bermuda could be in the cone around Saturday or Sunday, and if it were to impact Bermuda it would be 7-8 days out (Wed/Thursday next week).

I won't be going to Bermuda like I did for Ernesto last year.

Today things to watch for are how far south Erin manages to get before starting to turn more due west and west northwest, and a smaller system southeast of Erin that may be part of the reason its being tugged south. The main difference between GFS/Euro and the icon is the strength of the ridge to the Northeast of Erin. Pretty confident it'll turn out to sea before the US with all this, it's more about how much impacts Bermuda will get. Euro ensembles don't have any making US landfall now, GFS still has 1/2. Vast Majority are close to Bermuda.