Now with some recon data, models are aligning on the between Bermuda and North Carolina route, with differences on how close to one or the other is it. Even the icon, which is still the furthest left, started going back to the right. The other close approach is Newfoundland, but none of the models make landfall there either.

Story will be heavy surf and erosion along the areas the Erin gets closes to.

I think Erin is mixed this morning, better structure but getting hit by a streamer too, all under relatively high pressure, short term oddness to shake out. Wherever the area of convection currently just off North Carolina goes is probably where Erin gravitates to when it gets up there