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18z GFS does a graze of the OBX. One thing to point out the low is elongated with 2-3 potential vortices. These type of systems are usually fighting inside and don't develop until one takes over, if the northern one "wins" euro and recurve is more likely, if the southerly one wins, it's more likely to flow west. It's not going to be straightforward to follow, nor anywhere near as organized as Erin was in the near to mid range. |