Models haven't changed all that much, still a potential threat to the Leeward islands, and moreso Bermuda. Ensembles have widened today, although most still recurve. Things like the GFS show a bit of a hook after Bermuda, so trends need to be watched, but a US landfall is still extremely unlikely.

Still, the most likely outcome, as of tonight, is that the area in the East Atlantic will recurve near/east of the Leewards and get close to Bermuda. However, a weaker storm in the MDR has a higher chance of getting much closer to the islands (where it could strengthen quickly). So leewards definitely need to monitor.

Euro AI doesn't develop thi sat all, the 18z euro is much further south than the 12z, 18z GFS ensembles are all recurving east of the islands

It may get invest tagged tomorrow, but it's dependent on if a llc or even coherant convective area can be estimated. (Right now it can't)