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Pretty much status quo on the wave in the east Atlantic today. It's questionable if it'll even get invest tagged again today. Models vary between going over the islands weak, to stronger recrurving, or some in the middle like the Canadian. Most of the euro ensembles are north of the islands, all of the GFS ones are. In the very long range there's a stall near Bermuda on the GFS, which could make it interesting for Bermuda (although this type of movement in the very long range models is suspect. But any direct us landfall seems incredibly unlikely still. For the highest odds, you would have to go with something recurving east of the islands and getting near Bermuda, but it could get close enough to the leeward islands that those folks should watch too. The TUTT really is an obstacle for this here that the models are having issues with. Until the convective area is more sound it's unlikely to get invest tagged (if you can't identify a decent center it doesn't help much) If the near term changes go up, it's more likely to get tagged. The tutt is definitely making the models struggle on run to run consistency. Gfs may be more sensitive to that track wise, euro more on the intensity side. |