The latest run of the GFS is probably going to get a lot of unwarranted airplay on social media because it shows a direct Florida hit. To put things into better perspective, GFS is possibly the most bullish Global of all on 91L's prospects, with others, including "King EURO," and the newer AI versions of the EURO, far less so, with several runs of the Euros showing no development at all, or rapid decay.

91L is not in the most ideal initial state, or environment, for development. Likely better than the Euro would suggest, but also maybe less than the GFS.

A look at the past nine runs of the GFS show that while this model consistently develops the Invest, with some runs cooking up a very powerful Major, the forecast tracks and intensities are often vastly apart from one another. I think we will need to first get some good recon data out of this system before putting much stock in its track and intensity forecasts beyond 3 days (72 hours)

Above: Past nine runs of the Operational GFS showing wildly varied locations and intensities of 91L

NHC odds of development at 90% within 7 days seem reasonable. This number is probably accurate for within 72 hours at this point, and looking ahead at the next 72 hours it seems more likely than not to me that 91L will be named during this time. The next name on the list is Gabrielle.