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Shear, ASCAT and SAL analysis puts 91L in a narrow but viable sweet spot for development over the next few days at least, with a surface low that is probably closed but still elongated at present, and which is also separated fairly south of the deep convection and mid-level circulation of the parent wave. Initial development thus could continue to be gradual, but conditions are conducive enough such that if TC Genesis occurs, which looks likely, Rapid Intensification may be possible before it reaches the longitude of the Antilles. ![]() |