With many hours of daylight providing a much better look at 91L, the environment for development is probably even more difficult for it to develop than things looked overnight. Most waves out in the Tropical Atlantic can't quite seem to catch a break this season.

Unsurprisingly, several models have now dropped development altogether, and as noted above, the number of bullish ensemble members have also been decreasing. While NHC holds at 60% by Sunday and 90% within 7 days, realistically we may see this get lowered to something like 50% by Sunday and 70% within 7 days. I'm now in the 50% within 48 and 70% within 7 days camp myself, and going lower if current trends continue into the weekend.

That said, a coin toss within 48 hours is still worthy of tracking for the Caribbean, especially considering that an initially weaker system would probably favor a southerly track with less odds of out-to-sea.