| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Sep 08 2025 03:40 PM |
|
Re: General Long Range Lounge
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Quote:
I think its fair to say that the folks who really dig in to making long range seasonal forecasts every year are a bit stunned by how 2025 is turning out so far.
At the moment, it almost looks like the easiest way for the Atlantic basin to see something form that gets any stronger than a TD, would be for a cross-over from the extreme eastern Pacific to find its way into the southwestern Gulf and/or for a CAG to toss one out over on this side of Central America.
Pretty phenomenal state of both the East Pac and Atlantic basins for a cool-neutral ENSO year: Active Eastern and Central Pacific, and relatively lifeless Atlantic.
A major shift in some large sub-seasonal players, such as the MJO, might have to turn very favorable for Atlantic-side development, to break this pattern.
My thoughts for this year, re-enforced by the pattern that has established since Erin, is that the MDR isn't going to produce more than possibly one more named system. I believe there will be a flurry of home-grown activity in the GoMex, SW Atlantic and also possibly the western Caribbean that will bring the2025 season up to the expectations of near normal or slightly above activity. Heck, late August and early September have sent signals of this potential with numerous frontal boundaries penetrating deep into the southeast- some even as far south as the Keys.. Normally we dont see this until late September and early October.
There is plenty of deep, untapped warm water in the favorable late season basin. Unless there is some sort of sun spot ju-ju casting a blanket over the potential for TC in the favored second half of the season areas, it would not surprise me to see a tropical storm and/or a hurricane bracketing Florida a few hundred miles or so on both sides of the peninsula in 2 to 3 weeks.
BTW- I don't think a EPAC crossover is likely given the current "anti-woke" LGBTQ+ political climate.