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The 6z GFS shows nothing this moring. South American area had an ascat pass and showed the issues there, it's got competing vortexes and an elongated mid level. It's not going to develop. There's never been a september without a named storm (or something that would qualify for a name) going tack to 1851, we're going for an attempt this year.. (Hint: I still don't think that will happen this year either with several weeks left). Tutt around 40W has been shunting things for the last few weeks, so when that moves, door is open. On the animation page I've recorded the 850 vorticity charts, it shows since August 25th the persistant trough from the Gulf to Canada has effectively blocked any "home brew" style systems, while the TUTT around 40-50W has killed off any MDR waves, so the current setup is just bad for any type of development. East Pacific is very different from this right now. When the trough off the Southeast goes away, it leaves the door open for more storms, and probably will try to catch up in the lack of activity. |