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Given the near-record warm and untapped SST's in this portion of the Atlantic basin, that is the horse that I'd put my money on. Look at the convection in the western Caribbean Sea and Bay of Campeche that is currently firing there, all that is needed is for the CAG to position favorably south of the unusual and persistent late summer frontal boundary
Above post I made 5 days ago still valid... Impressive tropical wave exiting the extreme NW Carribean Sea this morning, crossing the northern Yucatan Peninsula, headed into the Bay of Campeche later this week. Not highlighted in the 7-day, it might bear watching if it can stay clear of land, avoid shear in the GOMEX and linger over the near seasonal peak sea temps in this part of the basin.
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Re: General Long Range Lounge