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Nobody mentioned the NAM runs the 32 k has consistently had it develop south of Cuba, 12z run this morning has the low centered north of jaimaca nothing in the Bahamas monday.. while all the other models have it in the bahamas.
NAM might be my least favorite model for TCs. Convection allowing model (CAM) that almost always overdoes tropical systems with convective feedback, which tends to make TCs form where realistically they aren't likely to and/or rapidly deepen when they aren't likely to. I'd say it is possible, but an outlier, still putting the odds of genesis in the Caribbean itself at about 10%.
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Re: 94L Lounge