cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 27 2025 10:19 AM
Re: Humberto Lounge

As Humberto has been stronger than models have forecast, it has been unsurprising to see that earlier the cyclone wandered a touch south of west, and thus south of forecast.

Humberto is now probably Cat 5 or very soon will be, as I write this. This is sooner than most models forecast, if they even did forecast Humberto to strengthen this much, at all. Therefore, there could continue to be a more southerly bias to Humberto's track at least in the near term (which is still more likely to be WNW-NW-NNW-N-NE-out-to-sea, overall*), as it will more easily feel the general steering flow in a much taller column. Something to keep a lookout for, as this could mix things up some, both for Humberto, as well as NINE.

*Edited for clarification





Above: CIMSS Steering Product 200-700 hPa for TCs <940mb