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Now that the GFS and the ECMWF are coming closer in agreement over the north then northeast turn into the Atlantic, it would seem the most likely scenario is through Cuba and FL is off the hook? I'll admit last week I was getting Hurricane David vibes... especially since I have a trip to the DR planned during the forecast window.
Personally, I'm not confident in model forecast tracks given the propensity for the LLC to want to establish itself a bit south, at least so far, and that we have not had a single recon mission in there yet. Track forecast should become more trustworthy after tomorrow (after data from multiple missions comes in). If 98L/Melissa-to-be misses the first trof exit out (E Cuba/DR/PR), there's that very legitimate risk that it lollygags around in the western Caribbean, and fine-turning how the next exit window turns out, this far out, is just too uncertain. Extra days delay is more time for steering currents to change
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Re: 98L Lounge