cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Oct 21 2025 12:37 AM
Re: 98L Lounge

Looking at the Google AI ensembles, both the most recent FNV3 and GENC suites have eased up on crossing Hispaniola, with several more members stalling, then looping back around towards the west. GENCs deepen slower overall than the FNV3s, but this can probably be explained by the fact that the FNV3 is specifically designed to forecast tropical cyclones, whereas GENC is a general purpose weather model.

Both 18z AI model members that take 98/Melissa back towards the west largely ramp her up into a Major, except for some of the early landfalls.

18z FNV3


18z GENC


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