Recon has found Melissa a little south of forecast. Additionally, the LLC and MLC are quite unaligned. Rapid development is likely to be slow early on, but the Caribbean is a virtual powder keg for when the cyclone becomes better organized, especially once it develops an inner core, as it appears likely to do.

Most models have shifted southwest today. Further shifts southwest, at least in the near term, look very possible. If verified, this would probably keep the cyclone in a favorable environment for longer, probably increasing the odds of Melissa becoming Cat 4 or Cat 5, and also potentially exacerbating flooding for impacted islands.