Recon, which is still in Melissa, has provided very useful information, much of which is now fed into models and official forecasts.

There are generally two model camps with regard to the cyclone's future:

1. More rapid near-term development/deeper cyclone, favoring a track towards/near/roughly or directly across Hispaniola, and out-to-sea.
2. Slower near-term development/shallower cyclone, favoring a track that misses the first exit, and hooks w or even wsw towards Nicaragua/Honduras, and explosively develops into a history-making-level Major.

This morning's two recon missions suggest that a third camp may emerge in subsequent runs, as the center has reformed northeast of its prior location, into very deep convection. Recon passes have found that pressures have fallen to about 1001mb, with winds, so far, not responding, but likely to do so.

Melissa's forecast is extraordinarily tricky, with several opportunities to escape the Caribbean, but even more opportunities to meander, stall, and even drift southwest. This far greater than usual uncertainty was reflected in the 5AM NHC Advisory