Now that we have invaluable recon data to consider, I am updating my 98L (now Melissa) lifetime maximum intensity best guesses. This is not a forecast for Melissa's intensity at landfall/s.

50 MPH Tropical Storm (Current state): Close to 0%
60-70 MPH mid/high-end Tropical Storm: 1%
Cat 1 Hurricane: 3%
Cat 2 Hurricane: 5%
Cat 3 Hurricane: 14%
130-140 MPH Cat 4 Hurricane: 17%
150-155 MPH High-End Cat 4: 19%
160-170 MPH Cat 5: 20%
175-200 MPH Cat 5: 19%
Over 200 MPH Cat 5: 2%

In summary: Current state: Nearly 0%. Odds of becoming a hurricane of any category: 99%. Odds of becoming a Major Hurricane 91%. Odds of becoming a Cat 5: 41%

This is all based on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, which is to say, just wind. Rainfall, flooding, mudslides and surge from Melissa could become an even greater concern.