It is looking increasingly probable that a significant increase in precipitable water, and at least some variation of a mostly to completely closed-off lower-level vort, will be drawn into or reform over the western Gulf later this week from DNA remnants of soon-to-be former East Pac Tropical Storm Cristina, leftovers of former East Pac Tropical Storm Boris, and the general weak gyre-like feature associated with the regional monsoon. More and more, models are on alert for this mix to potentially become our first Atlantic Invest of the year - possibly also bringing significantly enhanced rainfall to portions of Texas and Louisiana that may already be susceptible to flooding after recent rains.

Given that models are almost insistent some type of coherent disturbance will track across central America to resurface in the western Gulf over the next 36-84 hours, we will start a Lounge on this forecast weather-maker (Invest unknown/tbd) at this time.

Below: Globals 925mb winds and relative humidity at 84 hours out from 6/10/0z Cr. Pivotal Weather

Below: EURO AI Ensemble Run 6/10/0z Cr. Weathernerds.org

Below: EURO (Traditional) Ensemble Run 6/10/0z Cr. Weathernerds.org

Below: Google DeepMind FNV3 (GDM-FNV3 is DeepMind's newest ensemble probabilistic machine learning weather model, optimized for cyclones) Cr. Weathernerds.org