Model update: Nearly all of today's 06z, 12z and 15z runs of both the operational Globals and CAMs (Convection Allowing Models) continue to develop a closed low-level area of low pressure in the western Gulf in about 36-48 hours, of varying flavors of weak sauce. However, the western Gulf is a mechanically favored area for genesis and strengthening, often getting underbid by model runs that do not yet have an "Invest" to work off of.

As of this morning, the tropical wave starting to cross Central America from the western Caribbean has begun ingesting the remnant circulation of former east Pac tropical storm Cristina, and this could help jump start things enough for an Invest tag to be added once this conglomeration is in the Gulf. For now, a tentative recon mission into the Bay of Campeche has not been set.

Trends are also being closely monitored for flooding potential, regardless of development.