Most recent runs of Globals and also some CAMS (Convection Allowing Models) for 18z Sunday. The Globals are uniformly on the tamer side, CAMS mostly developing, but CAMS do also have an inherent convective bias that can often overdo tropical systems (NAM infamously). Nonetheless, the CAMS probably are also signaling the upper-bound potential of this system for 18z Sunday (roughly 40-48 hours out from now).

Today's NHC midday TWO increased their bid to 10% within 48 hours and 30% within 7 days, indicating that they still believe the best shot for tropical cyclone genesis may wait until next week.