MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Aug 29 2026 07:24 AM
Re: Dolly Lounge

The majority of the models and ensemble members still do not redevelop dolly, which is still the most likely outcome. Conditions ahead of the remnants of Dolly are still quite poor for any development. The exceptions like UK/Icon/CMC are finding holes, but are unlikely themselves. Concern level here is low. Strong wind shear, fast westward movement (~25 mph), and plenty of dry air are keeping a hard ceiling on organization. The NHC rightly keeps redevelopment odds down at a low 10%.