|
|
|||||||
![]() A fairly well-defined low pressure area has formed in the northern Gulf, presently about 125 miles south of Pensacola, Fl as of this update. Conditions are not especially favorable for further development at the moment, but are gradually improving, and given how close to land 97L is already, we are starting a Lounge on this Invest at this time. NHC odds have just increased from 10% to 20% for development within 7 days (and realistically could be as soon as very early next week). ECMWF analyzed area-average shear across the northern gulf has been around 12 knots today, with 300-850mb RH of 57%. ![]() However, net effective shear over the Low itself has been much higher, as can be seen in this 200-850mb shear analysis below: ![]() As 97L tracks further west or west-northwest, conditions for development may significantly improve. The latest ECMWF forecast for 18z Monday calling for just 6 knots of area-averaged shear and a moist 64% RH in the 300-850mb layer. ![]() Earlier today, Aug 31, NHC has designated Invest 97L a Potential Tropical Cyclone, and Advisories have begun on FIVE. The title is updated accordingly. Ciel With the 7PM CT Aug 31 Advisory, FIVE has become a Tropical Storm, Edouard, and the title has been updated accordingly. Ciel |