FIVE's continued improving structure - including deep convection - during the diurnal min - especially given a) its small size b) low shear environment and c) exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures - have me leaning into greater potential for Rapid Intensification overnight tonight and possibly also heading into landfall, than officially forecast or captured by current model runs.

Now that we have had one recon pass and a bona fide tropical cyclone has formed, here are my initial best guesses for maximum intensity (not necessarily intensity at landfall) for FIVE

TD (Presently a TD): 1%
Low-end Tropical Storm: 8%
Mid-range Tropical Storm: 20%
High-end Tropical Storm: 26%
Cat 1 Hurricane: 28%
Cat 2 Hurricane: 16%
Major Hurricane: 1%