Models are responding in a big way today to a forecast favorable upswing in rising air across the Atlantic basin associated with a favorable MJO. SSTs are supportive to very supportive basin-wide, dust is low to record low and if the pulse verifies it could all be enough to overcome the background stable state as well as reduce shear. The last ten days or so of the month probably have at least a 66% chance of one, and at least a 33% chance of two named storms in the Atlantic, IMHO.

Below: The most recent version of the Google DeepMind ensembles, WNv3 (WeatherNext 3)