cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 04 2026 03:23 AM
Re: W Carib-Gulf Window Oct 6-14 Invest TBD

Models, including the high quality DeepMind versions and their ensembles, continue gradually, if unevenly, warming up to development potential in the Gulf within this window. In addition, an increasing number of ensemble members ramp things up a bit intensity-wise. While this season has mostly produced weak storms so far, the Gulf this time of year can see upside surprises that are also immediately landlocked and likely to make landfall somewhere.

Big jump in the DeepMind FNv3 50 suite compared to yesterday, now implying 42% odds of at least a tropical storm, with a median genesis of early morning Oct 8th

Credit: TC-ATLAS


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