Model support for development of this potential future system is effectively now approaching 100% overall, and there are also some very plausible runs making this a hurricane. Without an Invest*, it is far too early to speculate as to actual intensity and track. Lots of known unknowns that can influence its intensity that won't become clear unless and until a bona fide disturbance has taken shape. Track-wise, there are also a number of known unknowns which can shuffle things around for a while. It is even possible that the future system, assuming it develops, meanders in the western to central Gulf before taking a more decisive track inland.

For now, any one model or ensemble run remains completely uncertain and speculative, but the table is definitely set for development and potentially for substantial development.

10/05/0z Globals YES/NO and apparent earliest development date if YES:
EURO: YES Oct 8th
EURO AI: YES Oct 7th
GFS: YES Oct 7th
GFS AI: YES Oct 8th
CANADIAN: YES Oct 10th
ICON: YES Oct 6th
UKMET: YES Oct 7th

10/04/18z DeepMind Ensembles
FNv3: 77% of 1,000 members develop into a Tropical Storm (implication being even higher of at least a Tropical Depression)
WN3: 88% of 64 members develop into a Tropical Storm (same TD or better implication as above)

*Invest tag could be coming as soon as later today, in which case, hurricane models would start running and recon would most likely be flown. There is a tentative mission now already on the books for Wednesday, which would likely get moved up with the introduction of an Invest number.