As noted by Dr. Levi Cowen (TropicalTidbits) above, the models are basically split into two camps, with several of the classic models less bullish vs. the AIs favoring the positioning of the disturbance (then TC) in the most favorable region possible. Essentially a few stars aligned vs. almost all, if not all, stars aligned.

The implications of which scenario is most correct are stark. With the less ideal solutions, our disturbance struggles with shear and dry air, possibly never even becoming a Tropical Storm at all. On the other side, what looks to myself and others to be about an equally valid possibility, the then-Tropical Cyclone finds itself benefiting mightily from strong upper-level divergence and much lower shear while tracking over very, very warm waters.

The intensity ceiling scenario of situation #1, the weaker scenario, is probably limited to a strong tropical storm at best, unless the system stays locked in the Gulf long enough for conditions for further development to improve, which is possible.

The intensity ceiling of situation #2, the forecast increasingly preferred by AI models, is very high, with plausible Major Hurricane outcomes, albeit as of now, low odds. But as models would have it, right now they imply about a 50-50 shot of this becoming a hurricane.