Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Aug 09 2005 07:36 PM
Re: Joe Bastardi's take

I'm sorry, but calling for an Andrew-type impact at this point is just irresponsible. That storm was the single most devestating storm of our time and affected hundreds of thousands of lives. It is not a storm to draw idle comparison to, period.

Irene is much further north of Andrew at 55 W -- by 5 or 6 degrees in latitude -- and the underlying conditions between this year and 1992 are entirely different. This storm could do anything, but unless you are able to back it up with hard meteorological knowledge, it's merely wishcasting at this point in time. Climatology also has just as many -- or more -- storms that didn't turn into these "tight widowmakers" -- and the atmospheric regime does not suggest anything to allow for this storm to do anything like what Andrew did.

If the threat for such a storm is there, we will know it well ahead of time. The threat is there for this storm to become a decent hurricane and potentially impact land. The chance for the latter right now is still less than 50/50 and still, no matter what occurs, a week away at the earliest. We'll watch it, but it's simply irrepsonsible meteorology to be hyping this up like that -- especially given no guidance and no observations whatsoever that suggest such a scenario is possible.



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