The NHC did a good job forecasting Katrina's track. I suspect if they miss it will involve setting the course too far south. Galveston needs to have Rita hit to the north, but I think she will hit close enough on the south side to cause significant damage, particularly if she only falls back to a Category 4. If she hits as a Cat. 5 it may not make much difference. Her pressure has dropped to 898mb. with winds at 175 mph which might qualify as a Cat 6 if there were such a Category.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/023809.shtml?3day

The current track indicates we may be feeling some effects from Rita here in central Kansas.
I noticed the computer models at wunderground were showing a northern turn before Texas, but that may be due to problems with the display considering that some of them were showing current location between Cuba and Mexico.