UKCloudgazer
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Oct 21 2005 01:42 PM
Re: C'mon! Lets hear those landfall predictions!

Very, very cautiously, here is my prediction.

On the whole, Wilma appears to be gaining strength again, although top left quadrant feeling the effect of land shear etc a little - if she just scrapes the tip of the Yucatan she may gain a more strength - enough to shove her a way up through the trough as it shifts her sideways. It's all guess work really, as there are so many variables to come yet - strength of shear / collapse of power / speed of Wilma /landfall in Yucatan reducing strength etc, but I would say higher up Florida rather than lower - Sarasota way??? even Tampa???, but with a reduced strength (2 or perhaps 3 at the most.). Hard to pinpoint a particular place so far forward - remeber Rita started out being predicted as Houston and ended up at Beaumont.

I am taking the models with a pinch of salt. At present I would go with GFS, it worked with Katrina and Rita, but I'll see what they come up with on the next model. They all appear to latch onto different elements and build a model from their own favourite- some of which have been BIZARRE!!!. Have felt rather embarrassed by UKMet - they didn't appear to notice it was ever a 5. I assume that there has not been anough data re 4s and 5s in the past to build good models from. Hope for your sakes that it stays that way...

Wherever it ends up, still terrible for those going through it. We experienced the Great English Hurricane of 87 which was a mere baby compared to what you folk experience...

My thoughts are with the people on the island right now with the eyewall upon them at any second. Good luck to all, and here's hoping Wilma will dissipate!!!



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