I wouldn't go that far, but I do think it will be downgraded to a minimal Cat 1 or maybe even TS levels. Heck I find hard to believe it's a Cat 1 'Cane now. Sure the outflow is good but the center is still not wrapped up very tightly. Then again after seeing so many Cat 4/5 last year maybe I just forgot what a Cat 1 really looks like.

I've said it in another post but I believe we got a jumper here. It will have trouble over Cuba making the center hard to find, then re-appear in a disorganized state over the Straits of FL / east GOM, from there it will spin up to a Cat 2/3 then hook sharply - ala Charley. In fact I'd bet Ernesto becomes know as Charley Jr when all is said and done. In the end I see a larger wind and rain field (displaced from the center), but a weaker storm wind-wise overall (in other words no Cat 4).