The GFDL, Nogaps, and UKMET have all shifted west today. The concern to mei s that it will keep Ernesto in the Gulf longer..giving it time to regenerate into a formidible hurricane.. Worse solution is GFDL. this will keep the storm in the gulf all the way to Mexico Beach in the panhandle. I prefer something that goes towards the big bend area like the Nogaps is leaning now, mainly because the population is low in that area, therefore less damage (why< and how much did your FL home insurance policy jump this year?). the GFS would bring the storm into south FL in a remote area as a probable Tropical Storm, therefore no damage...wishful thinking..my concern is th e slow movement..I asked earlier if Ernesto could miss the trough..I would love Clarks take....this is a real crazy storm..maybe because we are all focussing on it so much because it has been a slow season thus far...lets hope this thing dies over Cuba..i still think model runs tomorrow after the NOAA aircraft data comes in will really help the models get an accurate grip..........