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Among the models considered most reliable, the GFDL and UKMET remain to the west. The GFS is east, but it currently brings Ernesto into South Florida as a tropical storm and it's important to keep in mind that it has not been very consistent from run to run. Should be interesting to see what happens when the models update in a bit. Interaction with Cuba could have a huge effect on Ernesto's future track/intensity, so things are likely to shift a bit over the next day. |