The 18 z models runs are shifting back to the west, with the GFDL and the UKMET (12z) taking the storm into the Gulf and heading up the west coast....it is safe to say that the models are having a tough time getting a grip on Ernesto..with the pressure up to over 1000 mb, and a weakening storm over Cuba...anything goes....until we get a new discussion from the NHC, everything is guesswork..it does look like the high is holding and will force Ernesto wnw..the question is how much of Ernesto survives, and how long to redevelope....if at all