I voted no and figured I'd say something since the topic was getting tossed around in the other thread...

The 5 day "cone" was a mess, but it usually is, going from TX to FL in two days is pretty bad. Last year there was someone on this forum that said they were always happy when their hometown was in the 5-day cone as that guaranteed them to be out of harms way when all was said and done

However the 3 day cone was pretty much spot on.

In regards to the intensity: I believe ever since Andrew fooled them (and then more recently Charlie) the NHC tends to give storms a one category "boost" with the logic that they would rather be safe then sorry. I've never had much faith in this "estimated wind speed at surface" line they feed us, once a storm passes the data almost always points to steady winds that were a good 15-25 mph LESS then what was predicted.

In regards to Cuba's effects: If Ernesto had come off the coast 6-12 hours sooner this could have been a completely different situation. Then again it was such a disogranized mess I don't know how they even called it a TS when it was over Cuba! But if they had downgraded it then everyone in Keys would have ignored it completely. At times I think the NHC does stuff just to CYA. Nothing wrong with that since it protects more people but it makes them look like they don't what they are talking about when they are clearly the BEST at this guessing game we call "forecasting".