allan
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 12 2006 08:24 AM
Possible Thanksgiving day Tropical Cyclone??

Looks like we may have a storm on our hands for the Carribean and maybe even Florida. CMC, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS have been predicting a storm to emerge in the Carribean for about a day or so now. NOGAPS had this all along. GFS showed it moving very slowly east then sharp turn west on Florida last night. Now it takes it out to sea on the 6:00 model run. Since every global model is on to this, we need to pay attention. As of now, the wave is is in the Pacific Ocean. Though it is forecast to move north into Panama then the favorable Carribean.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
Conditions appear favorable according to the Shear Maps on wunderground.
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
This is all something to watch for now.


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