#59 Published Saturday July 09, 2005 at 12:00 pm EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm

I just got back online the WWW after a 10 hour outage thanks once again to my suddenly undependable broadband ISP Roadrunner.

At the 11:00 am EDT advisory Hurricane Dennis has a sustained wind of 100 mph a CAT 2 cyclone, up from a 95 mph CAT 1 cyclone at 5:00 am EDT. He continues on a NW heading or approximately 320 degrees at a speed of 14 mph. During the past 6 hours he has been wobbling on a heading between about 315-330 degrees, as he has undergone an eyewall rebuilding cycle.

Yesterday I had predicted a brief turn to the north due to speed divergence as Dennis came ashore on the south central coast of Cuba. This did occur briefly but then he turned left onto a west heading or actually slightly north of west. This occurred as Dennis began to weaken, allowing the Bermuda high pressure ridge over and east of Florida to decompress or push back on the cyclone so to speak. With the westerly heading the center stayed over land much longer than I expected and weakened more than I forecasted. I figured that he would be a strong CAT 2 or 3 when he emerged into the Florida Straits but weakened to a
strong CAT 1 I think it was?! Bottom line though is that Dennis is now passing further west of the Key West and they were spared a sustained hurricane force wind.

Looking at the synoptic situation more closely again like I did in advisory #51, the Bermuda high pressure ridge over the eastern Gulf Of Mexico and Florida peninsula has finally weakened some again and retreated northeastward. Why? The mid level shortwave trough that was over New Mexico and Texas on Thursday 07/07/05 has strengthened as it shifted east into the NW Gulf Of Mexico. Where is Dennis headed? At the latest advisory the NHC TPC forecast track has shifted back to the left a bit again, with landfall along the Florida Alabama border just west of Pensacola at approximately 2:00 pm EDT on Sunday.

Bottom line? With the Bermuda high pressure ridge over and east of Florida finally weakening some and shifting northeastward, as the mid level shortwave trough continues to strengthen and move ENE'ward, I think that we will finally see CAT 2 Dennis turn right on a heading of NNW and then even north during the next 24 hours.

So after several days of holding firm on my predicted landfall window of between Pensacola and Fort Walton Beach on Sunday afternoon, I'm shifting the landfall window eastward to between Fort Walton Beach and Panama City tomorrow afternoon.

Now what about strength? Originally I thought that Dennis would reach CAT 4 status again, maybe even flirt with CAT 5. But now I think he will reach no more than CAT 3 strength, maybe flirting with CAT 4 status. I also think that we will see him weaken some before landfall due to cooler SST's and some SW shearing that will develop along the Gulf Coast.

As far as impact for the Florida peninsula the whole of the west "coast" is in the most dangerous NE quadrant of the cyclone and will experience gale force wind conditions, storm surge of 3-6 feet, heavy rainfall and waterspouts. Inland areas of the western peninsula will experience wind gusts to gale force, very heavy rainfall and tornadoes in feeder bands. A track a little further west and the impact is less, a track a little further east and the impact is more.

And so far gale force wind gusts have been observed along the Florida west coast and even inland some with at least three confirmed tornadoes so far. At approximately 9:00 am EDT this morning Lakeland Linder Airport observed a wind gust to 40 mph and here in nearby Plant City I observed a wind gust of 41 mph.

In the southern Florida Keys winds have been gusting past hurricane force for approximately 12 hours. Highest observed wind gust that I could find is 83 mph.