Hurricane Stan, the tenth hurricane of the season, is approaching the southern Mexican coast in the Bay of Campeche with sustained winds of 80mph (Cat I) and a central pressure of 979mb. Stan is moving southwest at 10mph and has a small chance of making it across the narrow landmass of southern Mexico into the Pacific.

A large tropical wave (Invest 92L) is approaching the eastern Bahamas on its westward journey at 15mph. A weak circulation center is noted at 23.5N 75.5W at 04/12Z - at 04/00Z this weak circulation was located at 23.5N 72.6W.

Formation of a tropical cyclone is possible later this evening as the system enters an upper level environment more favorable for development. The overall organization of this system has improved in the past 12 hours. This active wave should move in a general west northwest direction toward south Florida in the next 24 hours, however, the wave extends northward for many miles and will bring squally weather to the entire Florida peninsula - especially from tonight through Friday morning. Floridians should expect periods of heavy rain with winds out of the east at 20 to 30mph. A few gusts near 40mph are possible along the east central and southeast coast tonight and on Wednesday as the tropical system approaches the state.
ED